Ukraine’s GDP is on a sustainable growth path. Private consumption grew 10.7% y/y in Q1, and promises to rise strongly going forward, driven by soaring remittances from abroad. Investment in fixed assets has been posting double-digit growth for 12 quarters in a row, was up +17.4% y/y in Q1 2019 and is unlikely to slip after the political cycle ends. Global energy prices, though, have slid, resulting in modest trade deficit growth. Non-residents have suddenly turned enthusiastic about Ukraine and the hryvnia, snapping up UAH-denominated government bonds. External demand for local government bonds, coupled with remittances, have translated into steady currency strengthening this year, by +7.1% as of this writing. More about economic perspectives, please, read at our last quarterly report “Lucky Zelenskiy inherits a boom”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source (www.globalsourcepartners.com). Trial access is available.
17.07.2019
Not only was new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy lucky to enjoy the support of 73% of voters, but he’s also fortunate to have inherited from his predecessor a freshly recharged economy.