Recently, the American media outlet CNN published a report on the demographic consequences of a full-scale war for Ukraine. According to the publication’s estimates, the country has lost approximately 10 million people due to forced emigration, the loss of control over parts of its territory, and the deaths of its citizens.
Migration only highlights the scale of the problem. The key blow to the country’s future comes from the birth rate. According to the latest calculations from the 2025 Birth Rate Database and UN projections for the global population in 2024, as of 2023, Ukraine’s fertility rate stands at 0.98 children per woman (prior to the full-scale invasion, the rate was 1.15). This is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. The internationally recognized replacement fertility rate is 2.2 children per woman. On average across EU countries, this rate stands at around 1.39, which is already considered a demographically challenging situation. For example, in France—a country with arguably the highest birth rate in Europe—the total fertility rate is approximately 1.56 children per woman. In Germany, it is 1.46, and in Italy, 1.18. Ukraine currently holds a historic low—each successive generation is numerically nearly half the size of what would be needed to ensure stable population replacement.
In 2024, the number of births did not exceed 190,000. Not since at least three centuries ago have so few children been born in Ukraine. By comparison, in the early 2010s, more than 500,000 children were born each year. At the same time, the death rate has consistently been more than double the birth rate.
According to data from the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, in 2024, there were more than two deaths for every birth. Every year, Ukraine’s population shrinks by an average of 320,000, which roughly corresponds to the population of Sumy or Vinnytsia.
Added to this are the direct losses of war and the accelerated aging of the population. The proportion of people aged 60 and older is growing, while the share of young people is shrinking. The age pyramid is gradually losing its pyramid shape, placing an ever-increasing burden on the economically active generation.
If current trends continue and the government does not change its demographic policy, the population in government-controlled territory could drop to 20–22 million by 2040. Meanwhile, the government is adopting a demographic strategy that does not match the scale of the challenges and includes risky approaches. Instead of systemic incentives to support families, encourage the return of migrants, and engage in long-term human capital planning, the proposed measures may, on the contrary, perpetuate the downward trend.
This analytical report was prepared by the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE Ukraine) with support from the Askold and Dir Foundation, administered by ISAR Ednannia, as part of the project “A Strong Civil Society in Ukraine: A Driver of Reform and Democracy,” funded by Norway and Sweden. The content of the report is the sole responsibility of CASE Ukraine and does not reflect the views of the governments of Norway, Sweden, or ISAR Ednannia.