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Prospects positive after a robust 2019

21.01.2020 Despite concerns about doubled elections and the new president’s unusual background, 2019 appeared especially good in economic terms.

A $4.9 billion inflow into hryvnia-denominated state bonds; a $2.9 billion payment from Gazprom mandated by the Stockholm arbitration; a 17% strengthening of the currency; a new record-high grain harvest; inflation slowing to 4.1% ytd, below the 6.3% target; and an almost flat CAD, all create a rosy picture for Ukraine. Even MinFin’s problems with state collections, which stem from the strong hryvnia and slower inflation, and the recession in industrial production, didn’t overshadow the general positive picture.  We estimate that GDP has sped up to 3.6% y/y in 2019, from 3.3% y/y a year ago.  More about economic perspectives, please, read at our last quarterly report “Prospects positive after a robust 2019”. The full report could be obtained through subscription at Global Source (www.globalsourcepartners.com).   Trial access is available.