Since 2014, Ukrainian society has undergone important changes. Some of them can be considered irreversible, or stable enough to provide the driving force for further transformations.
Key among these changes are:
• westward reorientation of the economy;
• strengthening institutional checks and balances, mainly due to the dual constitution and decentralization;
• change of the main social cleavages – from the traditional ethnolinguistic to the “new class division” between the “urban creative” and “oligarchic” classes;
• change of identity – formation of the core of a political nation and triggering of the balance between conditionally “pro-Russian” and conditionally “pro-Western” orientations;
• a significant increase in the influence of forces aspiring modernization – especially civil society.
However, so far the Revolution has failed to bring about profound changes in the rule of law – no fundamental changes in the way the state exercises its monopoly on legal violence have taken place. The nature of the state has not fundamentally changed, although some progress has been made.
Despite some advances, much of the economy remains rent-oriented.
If the driving forces are carefully and prudently managed, increasing their power, the country has a chance to move forward in a smooth evolutionary path of transformation. Otherwise, new conflicts are possible. Most likely, they may be caused by a violation of the rule of law, insufficient provision of law enforcement and judicial reforms. Attempts to reverse the country’s achievements after the Revolution of Dignity may also provoke public opposition.