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IMF and Think Tanks Tackle Ukraine’s 2026 Budget Shortfalls

10.10.2025 On October 7, Ukraine's leading economic think tanks met with Priscilla Tofano, the IMF's Resident Representative in Ukraine, and experts from the Fund's local office to discuss the challenges facing the country's economy in 2026.

💬 During the discussion, analysts from leading Ukrainian centers shared with the IMF their views on the current situation, risks to the budget, and possible ways to overcome them.

🔑 Key topics of the meeting included:

Insufficient funding for the defense sector in the 2026 draft state budget, while several secondary programs remain “bloated”;

The need to increase funding for the Economic Security Bureau and Customs;

The importance of restarting the Tax Service (draft law No. 9243);

Openness of public data and assessment of the World Bank’s new program on IT centralization in the fiscal sphere;

Tax administration issues: e-excise, e-audit, risk-based approaches, etc.

📉 Losses to the budget due to the inefficiency of the State Tax Service and the State Customs Service:

Gambling business — UAH 20–50 billion,

counterfeit excisable goods — UAH 36–39 billion,

the “gray” market for e-cigarette liquids — UAH 8 billion,

the “sole proprietorship instead of hiring” scheme — UAH 6–10 billion,

fragmentation of retail chains — billions more.

🛍️ The need to tax imports from Chinese marketplaces using the One Stop Shop model was discussed separately. Budget losses have already amounted to UAH 18 billion and may increase to UAH 27 billion next year.

💼 Experts also opposed the idea of limiting the salaries of civil servants and proposed introducing an OKR/KPI system, where the remuneration of managers directly depends on the results achieved.

🌍 Other topics included: the forecast for international financing in the coming years, the risks of its shortage, business economic expectations, the effectiveness of the tax and customs systems, and the level of trust in fiscal authorities.

📢 The IMF representative emphasized the importance of open dialogue and the need for further steps to reduce the shadow economy.

The participants agreed to maintain open communication to collaborate on key reforms and the development of Ukraine’s economy.