Reserves for the state budget in 2026: where to find an additional 100 billion?
Oleg Getman, coordinator of the Economic Expert Platform, associate expert CASE Ukraine shows that the country loses significant amounts annually only due to the main shadow schemes.
Key theses from the article:
What is already visible and what are the problems
The shadow sector is a huge “hole” in the budget: • excisable goods — 36 – 40 billion UAH of losses annually. • salaries “in envelopes” — 115 – 200 billion UAH. • smuggling and “gray” imports — 120 – 157 billion UAH.
Sectoral:
️Fuel market — shadow share of about 19% in 2025, although it was ~34% before.
Tobacco market — thanks to control, the shadow decreased to ~15.4% at the end of summer 2025. Alcohol — a drop in the “shadow” from 47% in 2022 to ~15% in 2025.
But at the same time: there are significant anomalies in the field of household appliances/electronics — losses at the level of 15 – 20 billion UAH each year. And an important nuance: even where the situation is improving, there is unevenness across regions or networks, which undermines efficiency. 24 Channel
Proposed solutions: how to “close” the budget hole
IT consolidation and information system • Create a single resource for the State Tax Service and the Bureau of Economic Security, which is administered independently. • Integrate with European systems for monitoring VAT, excise duties, and control of the movement of goods. • Improve the exchange of tax and customs information with other countries.
Improving the quality of institutions
• Reboot the management of the State Tax Service/State Customs Service, ensure funding for the BEB for 2026. • Introduce KPIs for regulatory bodies, activate the parliamentary Committee and the Tax Inspection Committee.
Strengthening control and publicity
• Publication of sales/service volumes in the most vulnerable groups. • Encourage buyers to request fiscal checks, launch a chatbot for complaints. • Increase fines for illegal players, regulate the production/circulation of new goods (e.g., e-cigarette liquids). • Introduce a registry of “drops” (delivery/resale schemes) as a separate tool.
Why it matters
Additional funds are vital for the country’s defense capability in the face of growing needs. Honest business becomes more competitive when the “shadow” shrinks. Stability of public finances is the foundation for social programs, investments, and development.
What can we do
Demand for transparency — a check for every purchase, a request for sales data, support for regulatory authorities. Support legal business — choose companies that publicly follow the rules. Be active citizens — file complaints about the schemes you observe.
Bottom line: the goal is to find an additional ~100 billion UAH and direct it to critical areas. But this requires systemic changes: technologies, institutions, tax-paying culture.