The government’s new economic development strategy, presented as liberal and designed to span 15 years, sets ambitious goals: accelerating economic growth to 6% per year, increasing investment to 24–30% of GDP, and bringing back more than 3 million Ukrainians who have left the country. At the same time, the published materials so far leave more questions than answers.
The provisions of the National Revenue Strategy call for strengthening the role of tax authorities and narrowing the simplified taxation system, which is difficult to reconcile with the idea of liberalization.
Mechanically adopting European standards without first strengthening Ukrainian institutions could increase bureaucratic pressure and expand the discretionary powers of officials. First, it is necessary to ensure the rule of law, limit opportunities for abuse, and reform government agencies, and only then implement complex regulatory mechanisms.
The intention to focus on so-called “priority sectors” is also viewed critically. A liberal strategy should create a level playing field for all market participants, not give preferential treatment to specific sectors. Industrial policy often becomes a tool for lobbying and lacks convincing evidence of effectiveness.
At the same time, despite the war, Ukraine retains a number of advantages for a future economic breakthrough: relatively high innovation potential, a flexible business sector, and the prospect of large-scale post-war reconstruction. Provided that liberal reforms, deregulation, and an influx of investment take place, the country could even achieve growth rates of 7–10% per year.
Key conditions for such a scenario include reducing the tax burden, curbing excessive resource redistribution through the budget, establishing a professional contract army with the support of allies, and creating competitive conditions for highly qualified specialists.
In a post-industrial economy, attracting, retaining, and developing talent must become the foundation of the state’s competitiveness policy. Therefore, the growth strategy should be based not on identifying “priority sectors,” but on creating the most favorable environment for entrepreneurship, innovation, and human capital development.