In discussions about demographics, there is often a misconception that wealthier nations are supposedly doomed to extinction. However, the critical factor for birth rates is not simply the level of accumulated capital, but the dynamics of economic growth and a sense of real prospects. Ukraine is a stark example of this thesis. Since 2013, birth rates in our country have been steadily declining. However, while the fertility rate stood at 1.16 before the full-scale invasion (already the lowest in Europe), it subsequently plummeted to 0.9 (a record low in the country’s history and the world’s lowest birth rate). For comparison: the international replacement fertility rate is 2.2 children per woman.
Studies show that even with increased benefits, this does not create a sustainable trend in birth rates. At the same time, according to a Gradus Research survey, 50% of Ukrainians reported a decline in income compared to the pre-war period, and 39% of young people (aged 18–24)—the main demographic group—are unemployed or have unstable income. When the economy stagnates and social mobility is blocked, people tend to put their lives on hold. This is exactly what we are seeing now.
Ulyana Kostenko, an associate expert at CASE Ukraine, explained to Mind why demographic policy should aim to create an environment where work generates income and the law reliably protects private property, and how depopulation can be prevented primarily through economic incentives, citing the example of successful policies implemented by EU countries in this area.
❗️The publication by the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE Ukraine) was made with the support of the Civil Society Home of ISAR Ednannia as a part of the project «Strong Civil Society of Ukraine – a driver towards reforms and democracy,» funded by Norway and Sweden. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE Ukraine) and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the Government of Norway, Government of Sweden and ISAR Ednannia.