03.06.2022
GDP drop is currently estimated at -35%, and the exports have critically plunged from 13 million tons at the beginning of the invasion to the current 2 million tons.
Keynote points of the discussion and abridged expositions of speaker reports are published below.
Keynote Points:
- GDP drop is currently estimated at -35%, and the exports have critically plunged from 13 million tons at the beginning of the invasion to the current 2 million tons.
- According to UN statistics, some 6.8 million have currently left Ukraine while 2.2 million returned to the country and 4.6 million (10% population) emigrated. The consumption potential has shrunk by 12–15% minimum.
- The National Bank is introducing limitations on the inter-bank market. The retail lending market is less regulated. The exchange rate is fixed and the overall economic policy is aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability and preventing the Fx rate from going up to UAH40/$.
- The structure of the balance of payments has changed: trade loans are indicative of -USD4.5 billion, more than two months-worth of all commodity exports.
- Security risks have caused capital flight. Ukrainian businesspersons try geographic diversification of their business abroad. Business rebounding is of topmost priority today.
- International partners are ready to provide more than 30 billion US Dollars for extra military expenditures, humanitarian aid, salaries and retirement benefits.
- It is important to set up investment pools ready to invest in Ukraine without high profit margin yet with an option of new or released niches.
- The country has a unique opportunity of, rather than restoring everything old, modernising or transforming the economy to make it more efficient and productive.
Transcript of discussion (please follow the link)